Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Update on Market Climate

I receive a regular report from Morgan Stanley listing a Truckload Freight Index and according to the information provided on the report, truckload carriers are not doing enough to take truck capacity out of the equation to bring supply and demand closer together. Trucking companies are still purchasing new trucks to replace their older models, (they held off on doing this in 2007 because of emission standards being changed). It appears most carriers are in a Catch 22 situation, trying to gain incremental revenue by not reducing capacity. If capacity is not voluntarily reduced by the carriers, the market will correct itself when companies begin to go out of business.

This report takes me back to my previous post-higher fuel prices will cause carriers to change their strategy in the marketplace. We are seeing the continued corrections in the residential construction market and financial market. Freight rates have dropped tremendously due to competition for market share-the correction in the trucking industry will involve trucking companies going under unless the economy makes a quick U-turn. The problem is, we don't have a GPS to tell us when to turn, where we are and where we are going.

Monday, February 25, 2008

Higher Diesel Fuel Prices

Each week the Department of Energy releases a report showing the National Average price of diesel fuel as well as showing the average price in different regions throughout the country. The California region consistently leads the average among the regions with their strict emission standards and taxes included in the price of diesel at the pump and this weeks jump in diesel prices is causing a stir among the trucking companies that travel to and from California. We are experiencing multiple California carriers requesting rate increases due to the sudden spike in diesel prices and they are doing this for a good reason.

Trucking companies have already felt the pinch of lower rates due to excess truck capacity and the freight recession that has been in play for the past year and I believe they are about to cry "Uncle" with the recent climb in diesel prices. The National Average price of diesel is reaching levels that will affect freight rates, despite the fact that almost every customer pays a fuel surcharge.

Sure the fuel surcharge is intended to compensate the truck for higher fuel costs, but it only pays for the miles the truck is hauling the freight and doesn't take into account any deadhead miles the truck might face before picking up the load or after delivering the load. These are the miles that eat into any profit made on the load in the first place and the expense for the deadhead miles is difficult to recover, and it makes the dispatcher/driver manager's job that much more important. Too many deadhead miles and the truck is losing money no matter how much the load pays.

Will the higher fuel costs turn the tide on rate reductions??? Only time will tell. But if fuel prices continue to go up, I believe trucks will become more selective about the loads they haul and begin to demand higher rates.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Freight Brokers; Liability or Asset for a Shipper

As the freight world sits in a somewhat static freight recession, most of the business out there is being driven by rate reductions and cost savings, which slightly favors freight brokers and logistics companies. But it doesn't mean that every company will be opening their traffic doors to the non-asset based model, because asset based carriers are catching up to speed, trying to capture or recapture business based on price.

In my drivel today, I want to address the issue of shippers turning away brokers and logistics companies based entirely on the premise that they are an extra liability.

The fact of the matter is non-asset based companies can add liability to a companies transportation department if they are not run well or do not have the proper procedures in place. There are a lot of freight brokers and logistics companies out there who do not carry a Contingent Cargo insurance policy, which is not required by law for them to operate. And if you delve deep into most Contingent Cargo policies, you will find a lot of them have way too many exclusions. And speaking of exclusions, there are a lot of truckload carriers out there that have Cargo and Liability insurance only on scheduled autos. This means that the broker should verify coverage any time they see an insurance certificate showing coverage only for scheduled autos to make sure the VIN # of the truck hauling their freight is listed as one of the scheduled autos.

Another major risk posed by brokers is the unscrupulous get rich quick scheme of moving freight for some shippers, billing the shipper for the freight moved, collecting the money for the service and never paying the actual truck that moved the freight. Legally, the actual carrier of the load can bill the shipper for the service provided if they can prove they were never paid. (This actually protects the truck that moved the goods, which is the way it should be). And another form of this scam is the double brokering scheme, where a crooked company accepts loads from other brokers, posing as a carrier, (with what appears to be valid contract carrier authority and insurance), and then the same crooked company brokers these loads to actual carriers who move the freight. The crooked broker/carrier then collects money from the original broker, but never pays the actual trucking company that moves the load. These schemes happen every day in the transportation industry and they are the reason freight brokers earned a bad name in the 1990's.

But there a positive sides to shippers using a broker/logistics company. The first being that in the situations shown above, the broker should have procedures in place to keep these scenarios from happening. And if something does happen, the broker should protect the shipper by making sure the actual carrier is paid for the load, (even if it means they have to create a payment plan or borrow the money).

Other positive aspects of using a broker include added protection for the shipper through these procedures, technology for data and tracking, reduction in freight costs and additional insurance, (if it is a quality policy that carries merit). The broker can be an asset through the relationships it has developed over time with small, medium and large trucking companies and the broker can help a shipper fill its need for trucks, especially if their shipping volume is very inconsistent or volatile.

But probably the most important consideration for using a broker or logistics company is the ability of the broker to be flexible. The broker/logistics company must be able to adapt to the individual needs of the customer, (whether it be rates, equipment, time constraints, etc.). And this is where the people and technology of the broker have the chance to stand out.

I know I haven't addressed all of the pros and cons of using a broker. (There are far too many with most of them being basic arguments ie. control of the driver, knowing where the freight is, etc., but all of these can be defended by a reputable, experienced broker).

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

1st Quarter 2008 Freight Broker Trends

I report to you from the trenches on the front lines of the brokerage industry, giving you up to date information on what I see.

Although the big rig called the U.S. economy appears to have hit the air brakes, it might be more akin to it hitting the jake brake. For our company, January was a very good month with great revenue weeks, besides the first week of the year. Was the freight held over from the end of 2007 with the slow shipping weeks of Christmas and New Years? Possibly. Or it could be a good push off for the beginning of 2008 that could stall out in February.

I recently had a customer call me to propose a 3% rate reduction for 2008, and if most of their core carriers agree to do so this customer will not put their freight out to bid until 2009. It protects the business for a year and guarantees (a word I never like to use in the transportation business) that the customer will reduce cost in their transportation department. For the record-we are on board and hope the rest of the core carriers vote aye with us.

Most of the forecasts I have seen or heard about call for the freight recession to make its rebound in the 1st quarter of 2009, which means more rate reductions are in line for the brokerage industry. The company I work for has been around since the early 80s and lucky for me, we have experienced slower trends before. We will rate joust with the best of them if the business is deemed worthy, so look out CH Robinson.

Mumblings and Rumblings about Rates-the lowdown on the cheapes rates I have heard
SC/NC to CA $.94/mile + fuel surcharge
SC/NC to TX $1.02/mile + fuel surcharge
SC/NC to IL $1.05/mile + fuel surchage
Talk about cheap. These prices are reflective of rates seen in the early 1990s. If this continues we will all be wearing Members Only jackets and parachute pants (both popular styles in the 80s).

Friday, January 18, 2008

Mergers, Acquisitions and Their Effect on the Transportation Industry

At the end of each year Transport Topics reviews the mergers and acquisitions that have taken place over the past twelve months in the transportation industry, giving readers a brief synopsis of changes with small and large companies. And yes, these mergers/acquisitions do impact the transportation industry, sometimes causing the big to become bigger and the small to become non-existent. The old cliche, "the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer" seems to ring true when I review this section, but this is what our industry has become.

In the LTL world, there are only a few less than truckload carriers with true national scope, as some were eaten by UPS and FedEx. We are now left with regional LTL carriers battling with the big boys and it sometimes feels like the truckload side is heading in the same direction, even though there are many more players in the truckload field when you consider all of the brokers, agents, single owner operators and logistics companies.

But the one thing Transport Topics does not compile is a list of mergers and acquisitions that have taken place in our entire economy, (which would probably be too long to print). I bring this up, because I am currently experiencing changes to my business due to two of my customers being acquired by larger corporations.

With both of my customers, the purchasing company is closing the doors to the facilities of the company it purchased, which doesn't entirely eliminate the movement of the freight, but it does rearrange the shipments. For example; instead of loads originating in South Carolina, they now originate in Tennessee. And the people who controlled the freight in the past will no longer control it in the future. All contracts and rate agreements will become null and void. All relationships that have been nurtured over numerous years can easily become memories unless I stay in contact with those people or they find other positions where I can work with them. And yes, it can be frustrating. In our industry, change is inevitable.....whether it be the departure of a Logistics Manager, bankruptcy or the acquisition of a customer. Freight, (or business), can be here one day and gone the next.

The transportation industry is constantly changing due to competition, globalization, global warming and economic trends. All things we have no control over. But the one thing we can control is our outlook and although as bad as it may seem, there is always something positive around the next bend. You never know when the new company needs a little help moving their freight or when the former Logistics Manager might you a call from a position at a better company.

And that my friend is how we roll with the punches in the transportation industry.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Freight Broker Rates

For all freight brokers out there, there is a constant internal struggle when submitting rates. Don't get me wrong. I am well aware that the price is determined by the market, (a law of supply and demand). The scenario I am referring to is one created by competition; where the broker has to submit a competitive rate to get the business, but at the same time the broker must submit a rate that will allow him or her to consistently cover loads with quality carriers. It is a tight rope walk that almost all brokers experience.

When an economic slowdown takes place, carriers and brokers begin to slash their rates in response to it, attempting to hold on to business. But where is the line drawn? Where does the broker know to stop?

Yes, there a multiple websites that have services where a broker or carrier can view the low, high, and average rate for specific lanes, but how accurate are these services? How often are they updated? Where does their data come from?

This is when experience, commitment, determination and relationships help a broker to succeed. The experience can assist the broker in knowing what rates trucks are demanding that day and an understanding of the business cycles that take place . Commitment and determination will allow the broker to continue covering loads even when there seems no hope in finding a truck for such cheap freight. And relationships can enable the broker to possibly get the business at a slightly higher rate than some of the competition, due to their history of providing great service. Relationships can also help the broker to raise rates incrementally as trucks begin to tighten and the rates begin to climb.

There is a general feeling in the transportation industry that carriers are sometimes gouged by brokers during an economic slowdown, but the carriers don't see the many times when truck capacity is depleted and brokers lose money to cover loads and protect their customer. The pendulum constantly swings and the broker hangs on to it for dear life, trying not to be thrown.
And so goes the life of a freight broker.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Freight Broker Business

I sometimes wonder how everyone in the freight broker business began their careers, especially with the multitude Freight Broker Training classes available. Most of the original freight broker pioneers are getting close to retirement age, giving way to a younger generation, logistics companies and trucking companies that have added the brokerage model to increase revenue.

The industry once formed to help fledgling trucking companies get their trucks back to their own customer base has evolved into one that allows larger asset based companies to grow without investing in more assets. It is just another piece of the puzzle for trucking companies, freight forwarders, 3PLs and 4PLs. The terms: freight broker, transportation intermediary, transportation broker or logistics company have all become interchangeable. The lines between head-haul freight and back-haul freight are not as defined as they once were and customers are no longer sure if the asset based carrier they gave the load to is hauling the freight on one of their trucks or on a broker truck.

All of these changes have helped improve the image of the freight broker by pulling most transportation companies under the same label, because most of them have brokerage divisions. These means trucking company X will no longer bad mouth the brokerage industry in the marketplace, because in doing so, he will only damage his own reputation. But the industry still has miles to go. Codes and guidelines need to be established and brokers need to hold themselves accountable to high standards. The one force that can drive these standards is the market place. If more customers demand to do buseinss only with certified brokers or brokers who use qualified business practices, the industry as a whole would be forced to change. But this kind of goes against the grain of the deregulation of the trucking industry that spurred the brokerage business, doesn't it and I don't think all of the Old Timers would be too fond of it.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Freight and Our Economy

I read a blurb on the TIA website about the future "up tick" for our economy and I wonder when it is going to come. I have yet to see any reports of freight for the fourth quarter of 2007, but I know from experience that it is down. Our Federal Reserve Chairman speaks of cutting interest rates to stave off a recession, but I don't know if it is too little or too late. Housing continues to be in a slump and fuel prices continue to rise.

For the transportation industry, this translates into more downward pressure on prices with capacity being unfilled. Trucking companies will continue to lower prices in an effort to gain market share to keep their trucks moving and pay their set costs, while brokers and logistics companies will battle to hold ground using pricing strategies, spot quotes, etc to take full advantage of the daily market fluctuations. The ultimate transportation winner in this type of economy is the customer, who can reap the benefits of lower prices and less service issues, but it also creates challenges for the future. The number crunchers for each company/shipper expect their own Logistics department or their outsourced Logistics department to control prices, and they will be able to show some savings for this year. But when the uptick comes after truck capacity has been trimmed down-because some trucking companies have gone out of business-freight costs will increase. The one factor that can counter the higher freight rates will be lower fuel prices, which equals lower fuel surcharge costs, (but I don't forecast lower fuel prices in my lifetime).

The immediate time during and after the uptick will be a challenge for brokers and logistics companies as well. Brokers will have to rely heavily on their relationships to keep business, get trucks and raise prices, all at the same time. The broker must have strong relationships not only with customers, but with carriers as well or they will find themselves in a terrible pinch.

Yes, the slower economy will be tough for everyone, but we as brokers are conditioned to handle adversity. Adapt or fail. It's just that simple.

Monday, January 7, 2008

The past, the present and the future of freight brokers

In reading The World is Flat by Thomas L. Friedman, I couldn't help but think of the many ways our world has changed over the past twenty years, and the effect of these changes on our business. The freight broker of the not too distant past relied on the telephone and his contacts written down on a sheet of paper or stored in a rolodex file. He or she might have one containing a list of shippers and another holding the list of carriers to call if a load from a customer was called in. The carrier list was very finite giving the broker only so many avenues to pursue, unless the broker had a book, (a carrier directory), with carriers listed alphabetically by state.

Along came the facsimile machine allowing customers to fax over orders and trucking companies to fax over their truck lists, which showed where their trucks were going to get empty over the next few days. And about this same frame of time, load boards began to materialize at truckstops across the country, giving drivers the ability to view available loads in their vicinity, enabling more owner operators to find loads, thereby becoming more productive and more efficient. The load boards also gave the freight brokers another resource for finding trucks, albeit an expensive one.

And finally we enter the modern day era of freight brokering, brought about by the internet, mobile devices, email and EDI. All of these things are flatteners, which have created more competition. The internet has given brokers the ability to search online truck postings, post loads and research the industry. Our mobile devices allow us to communicate virtually any time, anywhere. Email has made the ability to communicate quickly and easily just by pointing a mouse and hitting a few keystrokes on the keyboard while talking on the phone. And EDI has sped up the billing and payment process, in a addition to providing another outlet for exchanging electronic data. Document imaging has replaced the hordes of paper laden boxes and file cabinets, and the keyboard and computer screen have replaced pen and paper.

Who knows what the future holds for us? I can envision all drivers submitting their signed Bills of Ladings to the broker straight from the cabs of their trucks, further speeding up the billing and payment process, but I don't have a crystal ball. Technology has improved our industry so much in the areas of communication, load tracking and information, but it hasn't taken people entirely out of the equation. People, whether you love them or hate them, are the one constant in our industry and they will be for some time; which leads me to this conclusion: the future is unpredictable for our industry, but as long as people are involved in the transportation industry, freight brokers will be in business.